Drone sightings: The percentage of close calls remains low
Rich Hanson
On February 23, 2017, the FAA released a new list of 1,270 “drone sightings,” covering the period February 1, 2016, through September 30, 2016. This new data follows FAA’s previous release of drone sighting data in August 2015 and again in March 2016. Conclusion … the percentage of close calls with manned aircraft remains low and none reflect operations under AMA’s community-based safety program.
Following are excerpts from AMA’s analysis of the February 2017 drone sightings release:
In the press release announcing the data, the FAA specifically states that no collision between a civilian aircraft and a civilian drone operator has been confirmed. In fact, the FAA wrote, “Every investigation has found that reported collisions were either birds, impact with other items such as wires and posts, or structural failure not related to colliding with an unmanned aircraft.”
AMA’s analysis of the February 2017 data confirms that the majority of reports are simply sightings of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) sharing the airspace. Reported near misses and close calls remain very small—only 3.4%.
Although the overall number of reports increased in the February 2017 data, this dataset included a longer time period than previous reports, and occurred within the context of a dramatic uptick in the number of people flying UAS.
In late March 2017, the FAA announced that more than 770,000 recreational drone operators have registered their aircraft with the FAA since the registration rule went into effect in December 2015, and more the 30,000 remote pilot licenses have been issued since Part 107 was enacted in August 2016. The total number of sightings the FAA has reported—2,616 since August 2015—only accounts for 0.34% of the total number of registered operators.
Total Sightings: August 2015 Data 764; March 2016 Data 582; February 2017 Data 1,270
Near Misses or Close Calls: August 2015 Data 27; March 2016 Data 19; February 2017 Data 44
Percent of Dataset: August 2015 Data 3.5%; March 2016 Data 3.3%; February 2017 Data 3.4%
Percentage of Near Misses/Close Calls Remains Low
Consistent with what was found in the August 2015 and March 2016 datasets, some sightings appear to involve people flying responsibly and in accordance with UAS guidelines. In the February 2017 data, AMA specifically identified 86 reports of drones flying at or below 400 feet.
In our previous analysis, it was found that 3.5% (August 2015) and 3.3% (March 2016) of sightings included the explicit notation of “NMAC” (near midair collision) or “near miss.” Our analysis of the newest 1,270 records released in February 2017 shows roughly the same percentage of near misses in the new data. Only 3.4% of sightings in the February 2017 data contain a specific notation indicating a near miss.
Missing from the FAA’s data are the full investigative findings in the cases where a NMAC was reported or evasive action was taken. And, without the investigative findings and a more comprehensive analysis of the sightings, it’s difficult to assess the true nature and extent of any safety issues involved, and to identify what could be done to address them.
Conclusion
The analysis of the FAA’s February 2017 data on UAS sightings bears close resemblance to the trends previously identified in the August 2015 and March 2016 data. In all datasets, the overwhelming majority of reports are simply sightings. The data continues to contain reports on many objects that aren’t drones and a significant number of reports aren’t referred to law enforcement or law enforcement notification is unknown.
More importantly, more can be done to better understand the nature, scope, and impact of these reports. Some of our previous recommendations could provide some of that insight. These recommendations include:
- The FAA should analyze the drone data prior to releasing it to the public in order to more accurately portray what is happening in our shared airspace. Additionally, these sightings should be better categorized in a manner that highlights the most serious safety risks so that all stakeholders can work together to address them.
- The FAA should release not just preliminary reports, but also the investigative findings and a comprehensive analysis of the sightings. In the past, the release of the preliminary reports without this information has led to speculation, misinterpretations, and mischaracterizations of the reported sightings, in turn increasing fear of all things UAS.
- To date, the FAA has committed to working closely with local law enforcement to identify and investigate reports of errant UAS operations. This is key to identifying careless and reckless operators, yet too many sightings go unreported to local law enforcement. Better communication and coordination with local law enforcement can ensure that sightings are properly investigated.
It cannot be said enough that education plays a vital role in keeping our shared airspace safe. AMA takes its role in this area very seriously, as a founding member of Know Before You Fly (www.knowbeforeyoufly.org), a campaign created in 2014 to educate newcomers to UAS and drone technology about where and how they should and shouldn’t fly.
Through greater understanding of the data and continued educational efforts, we can keep our skies safe for all who fly.
